The Bank of Ghana’s policy rate is expected to be held steady at 28%, with any cut contingent on disinflation progress.
According to Databank Research, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely adopt a wait-and-see stance to gauge the impact of prior tightening.
The MPC is expected to commence its quarterly sitting from May 21, 2025, to May 23, 2025. A decision on the policy rate will be made at the meeting and consequently announced to the press.
According to Databank Research, barring internal or external shocks, its projections suggest a steady disinflation path, likely settling between 17–19% by mid-year on base effects and stable prices.
“This should allow for a measured easing of 100–200bps [basis points] by late July 2025. As 91-day yields continue to anchor the Ghana Reference Rate (GRR), we expect a gradual improvement in private sector credit, reinforcing prospects for rate cuts in 2H’25 [second-half year of 2025]”, it pointed out.
The Bank of Ghana in March 2025 raised its benchmark indicator by 100 basis points to 28.0%.
It cited high inflation, saying inflation needs to be anchored.
“As inflation becomes firmly anchored, the Committee will reassess the scope for a gradual easing in the policy stance”, it added
In addition to the adjustment in the policy rate, the Bank of Ghana implemented complementary measures to strengthen liquidity management and enhance monetary policy transmission.
In this regard, introduce a 273-day instrument to augment the existing sterilization toolkit, intensify the monitoring of banks’ Net Open Positions (NOPs) to ensure compliance and review the current structure of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to assess its broader impact on liquidity conditions and financial intermediation in the economy.
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