In the shifting sands of Middle Eastern politics, the United States has long played the role of security guarantor, protecting key Arab states while safeguarding the military superiority of its closest ally, Israel. Yet recent events and the rising influence of China could soon disrupt this delicate balancing act.
Does America really protect Arab nations?
Yes! and not just with words. The United States maintains robust security partnerships across the Gulf, underpinned by large-scale arms sales, joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and critical troop deployments. The US Navy’s 5th Fleet is permanently based in Bahrain, while Qatar hosts the massive Al-Udeid Air Base, central to US operations in the region. American troops and missile defence systems also help shield Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. Beyond the Gulf, Egypt and Jordan benefit from substantial American military aid and training.
What are the Fears of these Arabs?
For many Arab leaders, the spectre of Iran looms largest. Iran’s ballistic missile program, drone attacks, and support for groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis create deep unease in Gulf capitals. Other fears include terrorism and extremist groups like ISIS, internal unrest that could topple ruling elites, disruption of oil exports through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and unpredictable regional powers like Turkey.
How much do Arab States pay for US protection?
While there’s no “protection tax,” Arab nations invest billions into U.S. weapons, training, and base construction. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have bought hundreds of billions in American arms, and Qatar spent over $1 billion to expand the Al-Udeid Air Base. In Egypt and Jordan, the arrangement is different. Washington provides military aid (about $1.3 billion annually to Egypt, and $425 million to Jordan).
These transactions serve both strategic and economic purposes. The Gulf States secure American commitment, while the US military-industrial complex benefits from lucrative contracts.
How does America do this Without Hurting Israel?
Israel is America’s closest ally in the region, and Washington has long pledged to preserve its Qualitative Military Edge (QME) — its ability to deter or defeat any regional adversary. To balance Arab needs and Israeli security, US arms sales to Arab countries are sometimes delivered with slightly downgraded capabilities, Israel often receives more advanced systems first (like the F-35 fighter jet), and Washington maintains a separate aid package for Israel (about $3.8 billion per year).
This careful calibration helps keep both sides under the American umbrella, and increasingly, Arab states and Israel are quietly cooperating against Iran.
A Changing Strategy: Fewer Boots, Smarter Tech
In recent years, America’s approach has shifted. Troop numbers in Iraq and Afghanistan have dropped, the US has focused more on missile defence systems (Patriot and THAAD), surveillance, cyber security, and joint drills to keep deterrence credible. The Abraham Accords (normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab States) further signalled a realignment as Arab States see Iran, (not Israel), as the bigger threat.
Could China Reshape the Balance?
Many analysts believe so! China is now the Gulf’s biggest oil customer and invests heavily in ports, telecoms, and infrastructure across the region. Some Arab nations and even Israel are exploring Chinese technology deals, despite American caution.
Iran’s recent surprises — drone and missile strikes that penetrated Israeli defences — show how regional dynamics are shifting. China, which brokered a recent thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia, might emerge as a mediator or even an arms supplier, especially if US support looks less certain. Arab nations, wary of overdependence on Washington, are quietly buying drones and missile systems from China and Russia. This doesn’t mean they’re abandoning the US, but it shows a desire to hedge bets in an uncertain geopolitical future.
Conclusion
America’s balancing act in the Middle East — protecting Arab allies while guaranteeing Israel’s superiority — has largely worked for decades. Yet with Iran’s growing capabilities, Arab-Israel normalization, and China’s steady rise, the equation is changing. Pakistan, in a recent retaliatory strike on India surprised the whole world. Nobody gave the Pakistanis any chance against tech savvy India. The coming years may reveal whether Washington can continue to keep friends on both sides, or if new powers will force a redrawing of the region’s security map. While France and Germany have shown reluctance to support US-led interventions that don’t have broad international backing, countries like Sweden, Switzerland, Austria and Ireland are traditionally non-aligned. Russia has an unfinished agenda in Ukraine and is taking advantage of the melee in the Middle East to get what they want in fertile soil laden Ukraine. Iran and Pakistan have stirred the world from their deep slumber. China will spring the biggest surprise, looking at their engineering feats at home, which has marvelled many an American. The conqueror in any future war will not be the one who has the biggest, fastest or most deadly bomber, but the one who can, with just the press of a single button jam all satellite connections of an enemy. The going is going to be tough, but the tougher will get going. The US needs to go back to the drawing board and advise itself. Unfortunately, America seems too divided at home to brainstorm on the way forward.
FUSEINI ABDULAI BRAIMAH
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