As Africa gears up for a series of pivotal elections in 2025, including the recent ones in Gabon on 12 April, Malawi in September, and Tanzania, Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire in October, it is crucial for organisations operating in these countries to be well-prepared despite it being early days. The political landscape in these countries is expected to be dynamic, with the potential for localised unrest and disruptions. Businesses operating in these countries are encouraged to strategise on ways to navigate these potential risks effectively.
Understanding the need for safety
The upcoming elections in Central, Eastern and Western Africa are set against a backdrop of significant political activity and, in some cases, historical tensions. Evidence has proven that precautions are not just a safety tick-box exercise but critical for employee safety.
The past elections in Côte d’Ivoire have been marked by significant unrest and violence. The 2010 presidential election led to a major crisis when incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo refused to concede defeat to Alassane Ouattara. This resulted in a civil war that lasted several months, with around 3,000 casualties and widespread displacement. The 2020 polls, albeit comparatively more peaceful, also saw fatal unrest. This year, several strong contenders, including President Ouattara and former First Lady Simone Gbagbo, are expected to vie for the presidency.
In Cameroon, the elections are equally expected to be marked by tensions. President Paul Biya’s ruling party, Rassemblement démocratique du Peuple Camerounais, will be contending for an eighth presidential term. With the party having held power since the country’s independence in 1960, this news has been divisive among Cameroonians. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in the Anglophone regions and the Far North, including separatist violence and jihadist threats, are contributing to overall instability in the country.
In Malawi, the 2019 presidential election led to widespread protests and violence after allegations of electoral fraud. The protesters called for then-President Peter Mutharika to step down. The unrest that occurred during months of election-related protests led to injuries and deaths among protesters. This year, our security team expects political unrest to occur if there are widespread concerns about the transparency of the electoral process.
The elections in these five countries are thus expected to bring about heightened political tensions, with potential implications for security and business continuity.
Key Security Challenges
Social Unrest and Political Tensions: Election periods often coincide with increased social unrest and political tensions. Protests, demonstrations, and targeted political violence can disrupt normal operations and pose risks to personnel. Localised Unrest and Violence: As seen in previous elections, localised unrest and violence can occur, particularly around polling days and the announcement of results. Organisations should anticipate and plan for such eventualities to ensure their workforce’s safety and operations continuity. Operational Disruptions: Disruptions to telecommunications, transportation, and other critical infrastructure are common during election periods. Organisations must be prepared to adapt quickly to these changes to maintain operational continuity.
Security Recommendations for Organisations
To mitigate security risks ahead of and during the upcoming elections in Africa this year, we recommend the following measures:
Review contingency plans: Be prepared for a potential deterioration in the security environment by ensuring country-level contingency plans, including evacuation, relocation and stand-fast plans, are current and aligned with the latest developments. Brief your in-country workforce on these plans, and on their roles and responsibilities. Undertake site security reviews and vulnerability assessments: Ensure office and site security measures are appropriate for the risk environment. Map out key locations such as worksites and accommodation relative to main flashpoints, and how workforce, site and route safety might be impacted by associated unrest. Stay apprised of the latest developments: Closely monitor for information on scheduled or impromptu protests as well as relevant indicators for changes in the security environment that could influence the ability of your workforce to travel to these countries and/or remain in-country. Ensure that your in-country workforce has access to reliable and timely information, and advice in relation to protests and associated disruption. For example, via our Workforce Resilience subscription, Managers and their teams have access to 24/7 intelligence from our security analysts. Maintain open communications: Ensure that communications plans are resilient, and that your in-country teams have access to multiple modes of communication. In-country workforce should be prepared for short-notice disruption to telecommunications services and should maintain a list of emergency contacts, both electronically and on paper. Exercise heightened vigilance during protests: Advise your in-country employees to avoid associated protests as a precaution due to the risk of potential violence. If movement is unavoidable, undertake journeys either early morning or late afternoon. Avoid travel during hours of darkness. Employees should also exercise heightened diligence around polling stations and anticipate a heavy security force deployment on and around election day.
Organisations must be proactive in preparations as we approach the 2025 elections across several African countries. By understanding any potential challenges and implementing recommended measures, businesses operating in these potential high-risk areas can navigate the election periods with better preparedness to ensure the safety and continuity of their operations.
Adam Lakhani, Security Director, Information & Analysis, Europe, Maghreb, West & Central Africa
