The city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was taken over by the M23 rebel group in January 2025. This was a tragic escalation of a decades-long conflict that’s led to mass displacement and deaths.
Goma, a city of two million, hasn’t just been overtaken by rebels. It’s also just 12 miles (19km) from one of the most dangerous active volcanoes in the world: Mount Nyiragongo.
Mount Nyiragongo can have lava flows of more than 60 miles (96km) per hour. This is far faster than any human can run. When it last erupted in 2021, thousands of families were displaced and at least 250 people died. An earlier eruption in 2002 left 13% of the city covered in lava.
The DRC illustrates how millions of people in fragile, violent and conflict-affected parts of the world are at risk of both human-made and natural disasters. A changing climate makes people even more vulnerable to hazardous events. When these disasters interact, they can multiply and increase negative impacts.
For example, if Mount Nyiragongo erupts in the near future – some research suggests it is likely to do so before the end of 2027 – and there is active conflict at the time, will anyone trust early warning messages? Or feel safe enough to flee on roads where civilians have already been attacked?
These are some of the questions and scenarios that people working in disaster risk reduction grapple with. Situations like those in the DRC inspired a new UN handbook on early warning systems and early action in fragile, conflict-affected and violent contexts.
It’s been published by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction-World Meteorological Organization Centre of Excellence for Disaster and Climate Resilience. The handbook provides guidance and case studies to increase disaster preparedness and action in some of the world’s most complex environments. Important work being done by the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, the World Bank and others exemplifies the growing awareness of these threats.
I was the lead drafter of the UN handbook and had the opportunity to interview dozens of humanitarians. I also spoke to meteorologists, disaster risk reduction experts and government officials to learn how they help build and use early warning systems in fragile, conflict-affected and violent contexts.
Here is what I learned:
early warning systems – hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication, preparedness and early action to help people avoid harm – must be provided as a basic service for all, even in conflict zones
for early warning systems to be inclusive and effective, they must be trusted by affected communities
early warning systems in the places that most need them are drastically underfunded by governments and international actors – and require long-term collaboration and investment
early warnings and the early action they enable are a critical tool that can minimise suffering.
Key takeaways
Increasingly, work in the humanitarian sector seeks to address the intersecting vulnerabilities that arise from both conflict and climate impacts.
What this work has made clear is that, first, early warning systems and early action must be available for everyone. Early warnings are the result of a chain of information. This goes from the systems that monitor and forecast weather conditions or hazards to the experts who analyse them to the actors who share this information.
Early warnings come in many forms. It could be an alert on your phone when a flash flood or other hazard is predicted, or an evacuation message before a volcanic eruption.
The UN secretary-general has called for Early Warnings for All by 2027. This is an initiative for everyone on Earth to be covered by early warning systems. However, countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence like the DRC lag far behind in receiving investments needed to prepare for current and future risks.
Second, early warning systems need to be trusted by affected communities, which means co-producing messages and actions with communities and community leaders. Doing so would help take into account the nuanced dynamics in complex contexts.
In many countries where people experience fragility, conflict and violence, systems of authority have been eroded. In fact, governments may be a party to a conflict, increasing mistrust over any warning messages received. The Red Cross has a new handbook that helps practitioners navigating these and other tensions. Involving communities and community leaders helps with identifying existing early warning mechanisms that can be used for hazards, understanding risks related to conflict or violence, and developing action plans.
Conflict and peacebuilding experts within civil society and government, and even conflict actors, should be engaged in developing early warning systems. This helps reduce the risk of misunderstandings and misinformation, and ensures that conflict dynamics are taken into account.
Third, in the places where it’s most needed, early warning systems face funding gaps and limitations. Fewer than 50% of countries classified as least developed, and only a third of small island developing states, have multi-hazard early warning systems (meaning the alarm can be sounded for different hazards, ranging from heatwaves to flooding). Nineteen of the top 25 most climate-vulnerable states are affected by fragility, conflict and violence. All of them are least developed countries, and few have adequate early warning systems.
This illustrates the scale of vulnerability in these areas.
Near Goma, the Virunga Supersite monitors and researches Mount Nyiragongo and other hazards in the densely populated region. The Supersite, supported by several organisations, has helped build collaboration between the Goma Volcano Observatory and global institutes studying and monitoring volcanic hazards.
This is good practice, but the work is routinely hampered by a lack of access due to conflict. The staff also face a variety of risks, including intimidation, violence and kidnapping.
More collaboration to monitor hazards and generate early warnings and early action is needed. The World Meteorological Organization’s ongoing work with the DRC government to improve early warning systems in the country exemplifies a valuable partnership that can save lives. This is all the more important following recent pauses in US humanitarian funding as resources for post-disaster responses will likely be more limited. There is also an urgent need to address the broader conflict that has plagued regions including the eastern DRC for decades.
Looking ahead
The knowledge and resources available to predict and mitigate the impacts of disasters before they take place need to be fully utilised. This is especially important in areas like eastern DRC where an existing humanitarian disaster could evolve into an even larger catastrophe if a volcanic eruption were to occur.
Early warnings and the early action they enable can reduce suffering, save lives and minimise the cost of disaster response. They are needed in the places already experiencing disasters, too.
Evan Easton-Calabria was a consultant for the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
By Evan Easton-Calabria, Senior Researcher at the Feinstein International Center, Tufts University, and Research Associate at the Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford
