As President Donald J. Trump marked the 100th day of his second term with a campaign-style rally in Michigan, he declared himself the leader of a “revolution of common sense”. The crowd, energized by his characteristic rhetoric and unapologetic populism, cheered as he mocked his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden and renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve. But beyond the spectacle lies a critical question: How effectively has President Trump governed in these early days of his second term, especially on the crucial issue of trade?
This piece offers a comprehensive, balanced assessment of Trump’s first 100 days back in office, focusing specifically on his trade policies and their implications for both the United States and the global economy. By examining legislative actions, executive orders, international negotiations, economic indicators and expert perspectives, we aim to evaluate whether Trump is currently winning or losing on trade.
A Quick Recap
Donald Trump’s political comeback was historic. After a narrow loss to Joe Biden in 2020, Trump returned to the political stage in 2024 with a relentless campaign that capitalized on concerns about inflation, immigration, crime and global instability. His second-term agenda, outlined in his inaugural address, focuses on restoring American dominance in manufacturing, countering China’s influence, and “reshoring” supply chains disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Now, 100 days into his second term, Trump is acting with a renewed sense of urgency, backed by an emboldened conservative Congress, to push through signature policies.
Trade Policy
Trade was a cornerstone of Trump’s first term, marked by tariffs, trade wars and a renegotiated NAFTA (now the USMCA). In his second term, Trump has reinvigorated his focus on trade. However, the global landscape has changed. The US economy is more interdependent with global supply chains than ever, and Trump’s “America First” approach has raised concerns among allies.
Tariffs and Protectionism Redux
Within his first month in office, Trump issued executive orders reinstating tariffs on steel, aluminum, solar panels and key Chinese electronics, justifying them as efforts to protect American industries from “unfair foreign competition”. The new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 25%, particularly target Chinese goods, reigniting the trade war that defined his first term.
According to the US International Trade Commission (USITC), these tariffs have caused modest price increases for American manufacturers. Trump argues they are a necessary short-term sacrifice. “We’re rebuilding American strength, one factory at a time”, he declared at a Michigan rally.
However, trade experts like Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics caution that such tariff escalation could backfire, triggering retaliatory measures from trading partners, increasing input costs for US businesses and eroding export competitiveness.
US-China Trade Tensions Escalate
The US-China trade relationship remains highly strained. On Day 42 of his second term, Trump announced the suspension of talks for a new bilateral investment treaty with Beijing. In retaliation, China imposed tariffs on US agricultural products and rare earth metals, intensifying the trade war.
This escalating conflict has already affected US exporters. The American Soybean Association reported a 14% drop in Chinese imports of US soybeans compared to the previous year. Midwest farmers, a key Trump constituency, are feeling the impact.
Even pro-Trump economists like Stephen Moore acknowledge that while Trump’s instincts on China may be correct, his tactics could inadvertently harm the very industries he aims to protect.
Strengthening the USMCA, but at a Cost
Trump has also prioritized stricter enforcement of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While unions have praised the enforcement of labor provisions, new import restrictions on Canadian dairy and Mexican auto parts have caused friction.
Canada’s Foreign Minister, Mélanie Joly, warned in April that “overzealous enforcement risks undermining the spirit of cooperation the USMCA was meant to foster.” Meanwhile, automakers like Ford and GM have voiced concerns over delays and increased costs in cross-border supply chains.
Domestic Impact
Manufacturing
Trump’s administration points to a 2.1% rise in the U.S. manufacturing index (ISM) over the past quarter as evidence of success. Factory job postings have also increased, particularly in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. However, critics argue that the rebound is modest and partly cyclical. The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) warns that “continued uncertainty over trade policy and retaliatory tariffs could dampen investment in the sector”.
Job Creation
The US economy added 387,000 jobs in the first three months of Trump’s second term, with approximately 63,000 in manufacturing. While these figures are promising, the job market also shows rising layoffs in export-driven sectors such as aerospace and agriculture.
Inflation and Consumer Prices
Inflation remains a central concern. While overall inflation has cooled to around 3.2% year-on-year, prices for tariff-affected goods, such as electronics, home appliances and certain foods, have spiked. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, washing machines have increased in price by 9% since January. Treasury Secretary Larry Kudlow defends the approach, stating, “Short-term inflation is a small price to pay for long-term industrial sovereignty”.
International Trade Relationships
Trump’s aggressive unilateralism is testing global alliances. He has signaled intentions to renegotiate trade pacts with the European Union and Japan, demanding concessions on agricultural access and digital services. So far, European leaders have resisted, citing concerns about American unpredictability. Meanwhile, Trump’s withdrawal from key multilateral efforts like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which Biden championed, has allowed China to court Southeast Asian partners, diminishing US influence in the region. Karen Donfried, former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, noted, “US credibility as a trade partner is again in question. Allies are recalibrating their strategies in anticipation of more erratic policy shifts.”
Public Sentiment
Trump’s combative style continues to polarize public opinion. A recent Gallup poll shows 44% approval of his handling of the economy, an increase from his 2020 approval ratings, though only 32% approve of his trade policy specifically. Among Trump’s base, however, support remains steadfast. “He’s finally standing up for American workers”, says Mike Terrell, a factory manager in Ohio. “We’ve been losing for decades. Now we’re fighting back”.
Progressives and moderates, however, warn that Trump’s approach risks isolation and economic inefficiency. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has criticized his trade strategy as “a 20th-century solution to a 21st-century problem”.
Conclusion
The verdict on Trump’s trade policy is still unfolding. His second-term approach is bold, consistent with his ideological roots and enjoys political momentum. Efforts to protect American industries and pressure trading partners have yielded some short-term domestic gains, particularly in manufacturing sentiment and job creation.
However, the strategy carries substantial risks. Escalating trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and global scepticism about US reliability could undermine long-term benefits. Furthermore, retaliatory actions from key partners like China and Canada threaten vital export sectors.
In short, Trump is winning politically on trade for now, but the economic scoreboard remains undecided. His administration will need to balance protectionism with pragmatism to secure a sustainable trade legacy.
As the second term progresses, trade may well define whether Trump’s “revolution of common sense” is remembered as economic revival or reckless disruption.
The writer is a journalist, columnist specializing in international affairs and a journalism lecturer with a PhD in Journalism. Contact: [email protected]
