The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran threatens not just the Middle East, but global commerce itself. In a world that depends on the smooth flow of goods, services, and energy across borders, the economic fallout of this war could ripple through markets from Asia to Africa and Europe to the Americas.
Disruption of Global Energy Markets
The first and most obvious impact would be on energy prices. Iran controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption here whether through blockades, attacks on tankers, or military engagements could send oil prices soaring.
Natural gas supplies would also be at risk, especially in Europe, where energy markets are still fragile after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Higher oil and gas prices would mean steeper transportation costs, more expensive production, and fresh waves of inflation for households and businesses alike.
Shipping and Supply Chain Disruptions
Global shipping lanes are another key vulnerability. An expanded war could see Iranian proxies targeting vessels in the Red Sea and near the Suez Canal. If major shipping companies are forced to divert around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, it would add weeks to delivery times and drive-up costs for everything from electronics to groceries.
Insurers are already charging higher premiums for ships operating near these danger zones, further rising costs. For industries that rely on “just-in-time” supply chains such as automotive, retail, and tech delays and price hikes could quickly hit consumers.
Market Volatility and Investor Uncertainty
Beyond energy and shipping, any escalation in the war would likely deepen geopolitical divisions, complicating international trade agreements and partnerships. Sanctions, counter-sanctions, and disrupted banking systems could all squeeze global commerce.
Financial markets would react sharply. Investors typically flee to safe-haven assets during periods of conflict, driving up the U.S. dollar and gold prices while causing turmoil in stocks and emerging markets. Rising costs of raw materials, especially industrial metals and agricultural goods, would only add to the strain.
Long-term Strategic Shifts
A protracted conflict could accelerate long-term structural shifts in global trade. Faced with rising geopolitical risks, many companies may intensify their efforts to diversify supply chains, embrace reshoring and near-shoring strategies, and reduce dependence on vulnerable maritime routes.
At the same time, governments may invest more aggressively in renewable energy, electric vehicle infrastructure, and alternative energy sources to reduce exposure to Middle Eastern oil and gas. These strategic shifts would gradually alter the geography of global trade and reshape industrial competitiveness in the years to come.
A war between Israel and Iran is not just a regional issue it is a global economic threat. Energy markets, shipping routes, inflation, financial stability, and long-term trade patterns all hang in the balance.
For policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, the message is clear: the world must prepare for the economic shocks that such a conflict could bring and work towards building more resilient systems to weather them.
Source: Michael Mensah Ahorlu ACMA, CGMA
