Ghana could see its current account surplus improve to 5.1% of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) in 2025 from last year’s 4.3%, that is the latest forecast from Absa Cedi Report released in May 2025.
According to the report, Ghana could build reserves on the back of gold and cocoa export to support the cedi. It added that gold and cocoa production are projected to increase in Ghana with new mines coming on board, and favourable weather conditions for farmers.
“Given these developments, we now expect the current account surplus to improve to 5.1% of GDP in 2025 from last year’s 4.3%”, it predicted.
The report is optimistic Ghana will continue to benefit from export of gold and cocoa to support the cedi, which recently appreciated aggressively to GH₵12.40 to the dollar from GH₵15.50.
“We believe export receipts will continue to benefit from supportive gold and cocoa prices”, it said.
According to the report, Ghana is in a good position to benefit from export receipts of gold to build buffers for the cedi due to the coming onboard new mines.
“Several new mines (including the Cardinal-Namdini and Ahafo South mines) are expected to commence production in 2025, according to their owners”, it said.
The situation, the report pointed out could help Ghana ramp up gold production as the commodity is not affected by the numerous tariffs imposed by the U.S
“The yellow metal is exempt from the latest wave of US tariffs”, it said adding that the heightened uncertainty in global trade has also triggered a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold, driving its price to all-time highs of USD3,300/bl in recent weeks. We also expect Ghana’s gold output to improve”
On coca, the report warned that bad weather conditions could generally affect production, with Ivory Coast being hit the hardest.
“Amid expectations of a smaller harvest in the West African region. In particular, output from the Ivory Coast could suffer amid volatile weather conditions”.
It however pointed out that rainfall levels have been more consistent in Ghana, which has led to a handsome rebound in output after last year’s subdued crop output.
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