Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to hover around 5.6% ± 100 basis points in quarter 2, 2025, supported by a favourable base effect.
According to Databank Research, this growth will be driven by sustained momentum in the services sector and a modest rebound in industrial activity, although a seasonal slowdown in agriculture may limit full growth potential.
“We foresee the services sector growing at 7.7% year-on-year ± 100bps [basis points], primarily driven by the ripple effects of Q1 [quarter one] policies, including the abolishment of certain levies. We expect increased consumption and digital payments to further cement the information and communication subsector’s dominance in the sector’s growth. However, we anticipate an end-of-term effect from the 14.75% hike in electricity tariffs, which will likely raise operational costs in key subsectors such as hospitality and retail”, it disclosed in its 2025 Quarterly Report.
“We take a cautious growth stance on the industry sector, likely rebounding from -1.9% in Q1 [quarter one] 2025 to 2.5% ± 100bps, despite some construction cutbacks. Our forecast rests on a favourable base effect and modest gains in the electricity subsector, as operational efficiency improves with the tariff increase. However, limited CAPEX [capital expenditure] and potential output slippages from key oil fields pose material risks to sustained recovery”, it stated.
It continued that it sees a slight moderation in agriculture growth from quarter one 2025, most likely expanding at 5.1% year-on-year amid the seasonal lean period for key crop staples and cocoa.
“While government-backed initiatives such as the “Nkoko Nkitikiti” and “Poultry Farm to Table” projects aim to revitalise livestock and local poultry, the timing suggests their impact will materialise beyond the second quarter. Notably, we expect targeted funding and ongoing sector reforms to support stronger cocoa output during this year’s lean season compared to last year”, it alluded.
Economy expanded by 4.2% in Q1
Databank Research had earlier mentioned that Ghana’s real GDP grew by 4.2% in quarter one 2025.
This is despite the typical fiscal lag reflected in moderate appropriations, restrained public spending, and subdued private sector activity.
“In contrast to earlier fiscal and private sector lags, we expect the services sector to expand by 6.2%, driven by strong gains in information and communication as mobile money transactions surged 64.7% year-on-year, reaching GH¢649.2 billion in the first two months”, it said.
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