As Israel and Iran trade missile fire and airstrikes in what has now become the most direct military clash between the two in decades, the world watches with concern and, perhaps, not enough alarm. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an unprecedented air assault on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, triggering a furious response from Tehran that included hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones fired into Israel territory.
While both nations insist they are acting in self-defense, the sheer scale of the June exchange signals a dangerous shift: a long-simmering shadow war is now boiling over into open confrontation. This is no longer just about two countries. With energy prices surging, proxy forces mobilizing, and diplomatic channels crumbling, the world may be witnessing the first phase of a broader international crisis.
An Old Rivalry Ignites Anew
For decades, Israel has viewed Iran as an existential threat, citing Tehran’s persistent hostility toward the Jewish state and its backing of armed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Iranian leaders, in turn, see Israel as an occupying regime engaging in ethnic cleansing of Palestinians particularly in Gaza, where the 2023 conflict led to the deaths of over 30,000 civilians, many of them women and children.
But the most dangerous aspect of this rivalry lies in Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Israel has long accused Tehran of secretly pursuing nuclear weapons under the guise of a peaceful program. Despite sanctions and diplomatic efforts, Israeli leaders insist that the threat has only grown more urgent and in June 2025, they acted.
Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Calculated Gamble
In what was dubbed Operation Rising Lion, Israeli forces launched their boldest strike in years, deploying a series of attacks in a coordinated assault on Iranian infrastructure. The targets included uranium enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordow, airbases in western Iran, and missile storage facilities, as well as energy installations.
Crucially, reports suggest that Israeli intelligence had planted cyber and drone tools within Iran’s own defense systems months in advance, an indication of just how long this operation had been in planning.
Prime Minister Netanyahu described the attack as “a necessary measure to prevent a genocidal regime from obtaining the world’s most dangerous weapon.” Israel, he emphasized, will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, regardless of the international backlash.
Iran’s Retaliation: Operation True Promise III
Iran’s response was equally forceful within 24 hours, Tehran launched Operation True Promise III, raining over 150 ballistic missiles and 100 armed drones on Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and Haifa. Civilian casualties mounted, and critical infrastructure was damaged. Iran also formally withdrew from nuclear negotiations, declaring diplomacy with the West “dead.”
Meanwhile, Iranian-aligned militias across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon signaled their readiness to join the fight. Hezbollah has already claimed responsibility for rocket fire near Israel’s northern border, raising fears of a full multi-front war.
A Local Conflict, Global Consequences
Though not formally declared a war, the scale and speed of these attacks have global ramifications. With Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments—oil prices have surged by nearly 20%. For countries like Nigeria, India, and much of Europe, this shock threatens to compound inflation and deepen economic instability.
Also, the U.S. has deployed naval assets to the Gulf and issued a stern warning to Iran. Russia has condemned Israel’s actions but has stopped short of military involvement, positioning itself instead as a mediator. China, heavily reliant on Gulf oil, has urged restraint but has taken no clear stance, its silence a strategic calculation.
Collapse of Diplomacy: When Words No Longer Work
One of the most alarming consequences of the Israel–Iran war is not just the violence itself but the silencing of diplomacy. In a world already teetering on the edge of multipolar fragmentation, the final collapse of diplomatic channels has removed the few remaining brakes on escalation.
With the escalation, what many feared became reality: Iran formally withdrew from the Vienna nuclear talks, a process that had dragged on for years without meaningful progress. The last round, hosted in Istanbul, ended with Iranian negotiators walking out, citing Israel’s airstrikes as proof that “diplomacy has become a cover for aggression.” Israel, on its part, had long lost faith in the process, calling it a “stalling game” that gave Iran more time to enrich uranium behind closed doors.
The breakdown wasn’t just symbolic, it was strategic. With those talks off, Iran also announced that it would no longer allow IAEA inspectors access to key nuclear facilities, raising alarms in Western capitals and beyond. For the first time in over a decade, the international community is blind to what’s happening inside Iran’s most sensitive military-industrial sites. Speculation is growing that Tehran may now accelerate its path to a nuclear weapon, not slow it.
At the global level, the paralysis of the United Nations Security Council has deepened the crisis. When emergency meetings were called following Israel’s June 13th offensive, Russia and China vetoed a joint resolution condemning the escalation. The U.S. then vetoed a rival resolution condemning Israel’s actions. The result? Stalemate. No statement. No sanctions. No peacekeeping proposals. Just silence.
The global system that once managed crises through negotiation and compromise is now fractured and in that void, military options are rising to the surface by default.
With both Iran and Israel entrenched in their positions, dialogue now seems not just unlikely, but almost impossible. Trust has evaporated. The red lines are gone and the few countries that could mediate Turkey, Qatar, perhaps France are being pulled into regional alignments that weaken their neutrality.
This is how wars become protracted. This is how they spread.
The longer diplomacy stays buried beneath the rubble of rockets and retaliations, the harder it will be to revive and the greater the cost to the innocent civilians who were never part of the decisions, but always pay the highest price.
The War of Words: Who Is the Aggressor?
At the heart of this conflict lies not just missiles, but narratives. Israel justifies its strikes as preemptive defense against a genocidal enemy. Iran argues it is responding to Israeli occupation and systematic violence against Palestinians. Both nations claim moral legitimacy. Neither accepts the other’s narrative.
This framing has turned international opinion into a battlefield of its own. Western governments largely support Israel, while much of the Global South remains critical of Israeli actions, particularly in Gaza. The result is a divided global community, unable to mount a unified response.
A War Without a Name, a Future Without Certainty
The Israel–Iran conflict is no longer a regional issue, it is a lit match in a room filled with gasoline. With proxy groups mobilizing, international oil markets in chaos, and diplomatic channels frozen, the question is no longer if this war will grow, but how far it will spread.
The world must act, not with weapons, but with wisdom. Dialogue must be revived. Pressure must be applied not just to enemies, but to allies. The international community cannot afford to wait for a mushroom cloud before taking this conflict seriously.
The time for reactive diplomacy has passed. What the world needs now is strategic de-escalation before this slow-burning war becomes a global inferno.
Samuel Agbelusi
Phone: (+234) 07025861268
