– Source:Zambia, like many African countries, is facing a crisis over clean cooking fuel. Over 80% of the population still relies on polluting fuels like charcoal and firewood. This exposes families to toxic indoor air, deepens poverty and gender inequality, drives deforestation, and adds to climate change.
Globally, air pollution from cooking using fuelwood, coal and dung contributes to over 3.2 million premature deaths each year, including 237,000 children under five.
In Zambia, having electricity at home does not automatically lead to cleaner cooking. In the global south, electricity only starts to support clean cooking once national access rates exceed 80%. In Zambia, only around 50% of people have access to electricity. Frequent power cuts and high residential tariffs make cooking with electricity either unreliable or unaffordable.
We are renewable energy and green hydrogen researchers who set out to discover the potential for the use of green hydrogen as an alternative source of power. Green hydrogen is produced from water and renewable electricity. It’s a clean, storable fuel that can be used like fossil gas, without the emissions. It could offer households a flexible, low-carbon substitute for charcoal or liquefied petroleum gas.
Our research was based on a modelling exercise that looked at various factors related to green hydrogen and the situation in Zambia.
The renewable energy used to make green hydrogen usually comes from a solar or wind power system set up especially for the green hydrogen plant. For instance, the Hyphen project in Namibia plans to use solar and wind power to produce green hydrogen for export and domestic use.
These systems are expensive to build and operate. They also require significant upfront capital and storage infrastructure to ensure reliable output.
Our research used a computer simulation model to study the costs of green hydrogen plants, the amount of revenue they could generate, their technical performance, and their reliability. We also estimated the value that each unit of green hydrogen would bring to society through providing clean cooking energy.
This was a new approach, unlike traditional planning tools that decide whether green hydrogen plants are feasible based on how much they cost to set up.
One of the scenarios we modelled was how much green hydrogen would cost if it was made with electricity from the national grid.
In Zambia, 83% of the country’s power from the grid is already renewable hydropower, with another 3% coming from solar power. Based on our modelling, we found that using grid power to produce green hydrogen is feasible in Zambia. Not only that, it’s also the most cost-effective and inclusive pathway for expanding green hydrogen for household and industrial use.
Our research is the first to explicitly model green hydrogen production in low-income settings like Zambia, and the first to estimate the value that each unit of green hydrogen would bring to society.
What works and what doesn’t
From this research, several key insights emerged.
First, a green hydrogen system in Zambia that’s connected to the national electricity grid is consistently more cost-effective than one connected to a stand-alone renewable energy system. This is largely because grid-connected systems can use existing infrastructure. So the high costs involved in setting up the equipment to generate renewable energy and buying big energy storage and backup capacity systems can be avoided.
Grid electricity costs in Zambia are low. This means that grid-connected green hydrogen systems can produce hydrogen for around US$7 per kilogram – cheaper than green hydrogen created by a stand-alone renewable energy system, which costs around $13 per kilogram.
Compared with gas, a fossil fuel that costs between US$3.50 and $7 per kilogram, green hydrogen is already within the price range needed to compete. But to compete with charcoal, green hydrogen must sell for around US$0.60 to US$1.20 per kilogram. It will need the costs of producing it to drop and supportive policies such as carbon credits for the price to fall.
Second, the size of the system matters. Larger green hydrogen systems, those serving around 10,000 people (producing more than 70 gigawatt hours of green hydrogen annually), are much more financially sustainable. The cost per unit of green hydrogen drops as production increases.
In contrast to systems connected to the grid, systems relying solely on solar energy are the most expensive and technically challenging to operate. They require heavy upfront investment in solar panels, hydrogen storage, and fuel cells to ensure round-the-clock energy supply. In Brazil and Australia, research found that the revenues generated by these systems were not enough to cover ongoing costs. This currently makes standalone green hydrogen systems economically unviable over the long term.
What needs to happen next
Policy makers and development partners should avoid assuming that green hydrogen plants that rely on their own solar power systems are the best path forward. Our research shows that grid-connected hydrogen systems are more cost-effective and scalable. This is important in countries where national electricity grids are based on renewable energy.
Governments also need to ensure that their green hydrogen plans don’t just set up the industry for export. Green hydrogen must be made available to local homes and industries so that they can move away from using energy based on burning fossil fuels. The greenhouse gases emitted from this are a major source of health problems. Fossil fuels are also vulnerable to globally volatile prices.
Policy incentives should also support energy users as well as developers. One of the findings of our study was that tax credits mainly help industry profit more. Tax breaks don’t guarantee that local communities will have access to green hydrogen. This mirrors research on the role of tax credits in the fossil fuel industry. When support is linked to use rather than supply alone, these policies can encourage broader adoption.
A successful transition will also require inclusive partnerships. Governments, the private sector, donors, and civil society all have important roles to play.
Green hydrogen won’t solve Africa’s energy poverty alone, but it can be a powerful tool if it’s designed for equity as well as efficiency.
Mulako Dean Mukelabai receives financial support for his doctoral research from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and Loughborough University through the EPSRC Sustainable Hydrogen Centre for Doctoral Training, funded by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), grant number EP/S023909/1.
Richard Blanchard receives funding from Horizon Europe, EPSRC, Innovate UK and UK FCDO. He is affiliated with the Institution of Electronic and Electrical Engineers (Senior Member) and is a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy.
By Mulako Dean Mukelabai, PhD Student, Loughborough University And
Richard Blanchard, Full Professor of Renewable Energy, Loughborough University
