Ghana’s economic trajectory over the past eight years under the mismanagement of the NPP government has been marked by fiscal negligence, unsustainable debt accumulation, and structural weaknesses that have impeded growth. Between 2016 and 2022, the country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio skyrocketed from 56% to 93%, constraining fiscal space and forcing reliance on external interventions such as the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Real GDP growth, which stood at 8.1% in 2017, which was attained on the back of the heavy lifting done by first administration of his excellency, John Dramani Mahama, saw a sudden plummet to an estimated 3.1% in 2023, illustrating the degree of economic stagnation. Without TRANSFORMATIVE and pragmatic policy interventions, Ghana risks prolonged economic malaise that the nation cannot afford as the citizens have suffered enough.
Ghana’s macroeconomic indicators over the past eight years expose a worrying trend of fiscal imprudence and ineffective policy execution. By 2022, over 50% of government revenue was allocated to debt servicing, significantly reducing fiscal flexibility for developmental projects. Inflation surged to 54.1% in December 2022, while the cedi depreciated by 30% against the US dollar, eroding household purchasing power and deterring both direct and indirect foreign investments. The economy remains overly reliant on gold, cocoa, and oil, which collectively account for 80% of export earnings, exposing the nation to global price volatility. Chronic fiscal deficits, averaging 7% of GDP annually, coupled with public sector inefficiencies and diminished investor confidence paint a bleak picture for the nation. Meanwhile, poverty reduction efforts have stagnated, with 23.4% of the population living below the poverty line, exacerbating economic inequality and causing unprecedented hardship that stifles the wellbeing of Ghanaians.
The challenging question facing His Excellency the president, John Dramani Mahama today is whether to reform or to transform the economy to realise the remarkable growth that stands to bring about prosperity to the nation and cure it of perennial indebtedness and reliance on IMF and external bodies for support.
Taking a transformational option provides solid choice to reverse this downward spiral and reposition Ghana as a competitive emerging market, this second coming of His Excellency, JDM must implement robust fiscal and structural TRANSFORMATION that prioritises macroeconomic stability, productivity-driven growth, and inclusive development such that no citizen or sector is left behind irrespective of reason or context. It must a full throttle approach.
Ghana’s manufacturing sector has the potential to significantly increase revenue if more emphasis is placed on competitive value-added processing. Cocoa, for instance, remains a major foreign exchange earner, yet over 80% of cocoa exports remain in raw form, earning Ghana far less than it could from processed cocoa products. If the country increases its processing capacity by even 20%, it stands to generate an additional $2 billion annually in export revenue which is $1 billion short of the recent IMF bailout. Similarly, the cashew sector, which currently brings in $430 million annually, has the potential to deliver an increase of 50% in value if a greater percentage of raw cashews are processed locally instead of exported unprocessed.
The energy sector must undergo urgent TRANSFORMATION to eliminate inefficiencies and reduce financial haemorrhaging the rate at which it oozes out loses is not sustainable. Ghana’s electricity tariffs are among the highest in West Africa due to structural inefficiencies and non-cost-reflective pricing. The state-owned Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) is saddled with $1.5 billion in debt, a situation worsened by subsidies and non-technical losses – I am inclined not to touch on the wanton fraud that has taken place there over the past eight years- . By investing in renewable energy sources, particularly solar and hydroelectric projects, the country could cut its dependence on imported fuels, saving the economy nearly $500 million annually while ensuring energy security diversification in this context making it a pivotal option to steer towards instead of the dubious privatisation that hands over state resources to few individuals.
Revenue mobilisation, mismanagement and fraud remain the core of Ghana’s weakest economic links for prosperity, the pragmatic one that can be immediately addressed is the tax revenue. With tax revenue contributing only 13% of GDP, significantly lower than the sub-Saharan Africa average of 18%. Closing this gap through aggressive fair tax compliance measures and streamlining tax exemptions could yield an additional $3 billion annually. The government must also implement rigorous TRANSFORMATIVE fiscal discipline by capping unproductive public spending and ensuring that funds allocated for infrastructure projects are not wasted on inflated contracts, procurement breaches and inefficiencies.
While Ghana’s economic future will largely be determined by domestic policy choices, external macroeconomic trends also pose significant risks. The IMF and OECD project global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2025-2026, signalling moderate external demand for Ghanaian exports. However, geopolitical uncertainties, monetary tightening by advanced economies, and fluctuations in commodity markets could amplify vulnerabilities in Ghana’s external sector. The government must adopt a proactive approach to mitigate these risks, ensuring that trade agreements under AfCFTA are maximised to expand market opportunities for Ghanaian goods and services. The turbulence in American politics is likely to achieve some level of peace in Western and Middle Eastern conflicts which turn the tide and usher in growth in global trade and increase prosperity.
The economic trajectory of Ghana, our Motherland, in 2025-2026 will be a defining period, requiring bold TRANSFORMATIVE leadership from JDM and his appointees, evidence-based policymaking and unwavering execution practices. Failure to implement structural TRANSFORMATION will entrench economic stagnation, while decisive TRANSFORMATIVE action could catalyse a sustainable recovery, targeting GDP growth above 7% by 2026. The time for TRANSFORMATION is now! The government must prioritise economic diversification, enhance domestic revenue generation, and eliminate inefficiencies in critical sectors. By embracing a results-driven approach and moving away from populist economic policies, Ghana can build a resilient, prosperous, and competitive economy that benefits all citizens. The stakes have never been this higher.
Together, We Can Build THE Better Ghana That We Deserve for ourselves and our future generations.
Issaka Sannie (Farakhan),
Zongo Caucus, UK and Ireland coordinator.
