Let’s crunch some numbers based on President Mahama’s “Nkokɔ Nketenkete” proposal! If 50,000 households are each given 10 chickens, and we assume 2 are males and 8 are females, we can estimate the total number of chickens after one year, assuming productive cycles.
ASSUMPTIONS AND REPRODUCTION CYCLES
1. Number of Households: 50,000
2. Initial Distribution per Household: 10 chickens (8 females, 2 males).
3. Laying Cycle: On average, a healthy hen can lay around 200 eggs per year.
4. Hatch Rate: Assuming a 75% hatching success rate, 200 eggs result in 150 chicks per year per hen.
5. Mortality Rate: Factoring in a 20% mortality rate, we’ll calculate the surviving chicks.
STEP-BY-STEP CALCULATION
1. Initial Chickens Distributed:
Total households × 10 chickens per household = 50,000 × 10 = 500,000 chickens initially.
2. Total Eggs Laid in a Year (by 8 hens per household):
8 hens × 200 eggs = 1,600 eggs per household.
For 50,000 households: 1,600 eggs × 50,000 = 80,000,000 eggs annually.
3. Hatched Chicks After 75% Success Rate:
80,000,000 eggs × 75% = 60,000,000 chicks.
4. Surviving Chicks After 20% Mortality:
60,000,000 chicks × 80% = 48,000,000 surviving chicks.
5. Total Chickens at the End of the Year:
Initial chickens (500,000) + Surviving chicks (48,000,000) = 48,500,000 chickens in one year.
CHICKENS BY CYCLE
If we break the year into 2 reproductive cycles (6 months each), we can calculate for each cycle:
1. Eggs laid per cycle (half of annual total):
80,000,000 ÷ 2 = 40,000,000 eggs per cycle.
2. Hatched chicks per cycle (after 75% success):
40,000,000 × 75% = 30,000,000 chicks per cycle.
3. Surviving chicks per cycle (after 20% mortality):
30,000,000 × 80% = 24,000,000 chicks per cycle.
By cycle:
– Cycle 1 Total (Initial + Cycle 1 chicks): 500,000 + 24,000,000 = 24,500,000 chickens.
– Cycle 2 Total (after Cycle 1 reproduction):
24,500,000 × reproduction rate = aligns with annual total, 48,500,000 chickens.
TAKEAWAYS
By the end of one year, under these assumptions, the proposal could result in approximately 48.5 million chickens, starting from the initial distribution. This highlights the potential massive scale of poultry production, contributing to food security and rural livelihoods.
Retired Senior Citizen
Teshie-Nungua
026-414-0626
[email protected]
