Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is forecast to firm to 3.7% in 2025 and strengthen to an average of 4.2% in 2026-27, the World Bank has revealed in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report.
It assumes the external environment does not deteriorate further, inflation eases as anticipated, and conflict de-escalates.
It indicated that SSA is one of two regions where growth is projected to increase through the forecast horizon. However, this growth is expected to fall short of its long-term average over 2000-19, and it is insufficient to make significant strides in reducing extreme poverty.
Moreover, it said growth projections have been revised down by 0.4 percentage point for 2025 and 0.2 percentage point for 2026.
“The region’s outlook has worsened following the deterioration in global conditions, dampened by the rise in trade barriers, heightened trade policy uncertainty, and weakening confidence. Although the direct effects of escalating trade tensions and a weakening global investor appetite are expected to be moderate, the outlook for SSA is affected by global spillovers from these shocks, primarily through lower global commodity demand”, the World Bank stated.
The regional outlook is also predicated on a gradual easing of monetary policy interest rates within the region, which should bolster private consumption and investment.
However, elevated public debt and high borrowing costs necessitate continued fiscal consolidation efforts, which will weigh on demand.
It pointed out that fiscal balances are expected to improve, with the average primary fiscal deficit projected to reach a balance within the forecast horizon.
Nigeria to Grow at 3.6% in 2025
The World Bank said growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 3.6% in 2025 and to an average of 3.8% in 2026-27.
It added that following monetary policy tightening in 2024 to address rapid currency depreciation, inflation is projected to decline gradually.
“Domestic reforms have helped spur investment, supporting growth in the services sector, especially in financial services and information and communication technology. Services activity will continue to be the main driver of growth, while the industrial sector will remain constrained by subdued crude oil production as last year’s slight rebound wanes”, it concluded.
South Africa to Grow at 0.75% in 2025
The World Bank also said growth in South Africa is projected to improve marginally to 0.7% in 2025 and to increase to a still weak average of 1.2% in 2026-27.
For 2025 and 2026, this represents an average downgrade of 1 percentage point a year from previous forecasts.
The significant downward revision throughout the forecast horizon, it said, reflects a more challenging environment marred by global trade tensions, rising export tariffs, and low potential growth.
Ghana’s Growth Rate Pegged at 3.9% in 2025
Meanwhile, the World Bank has affirmed its 3.9% growth forecast for Ghana in 2025.
It is however predicting a much stronger growth rate of 4.6% in 2026.
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